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Global water models are increasingly used to understand past, present and future water cycles, but disagreements between simulated variables make model-based inferences uncertain. Although there is empirical evidence of different large-scale relationships in hydrology, these relationships are rarely considered in model evaluation. Here we evaluate global water models using functional relationships that capture the spatial co-variability of forcing variables (precipitation, net radiation) and key response variables (actual evapotranspiration, groundwater recharge, total runoff). Results show strong disagreement in both shape and strength of model-based functional relationships, especially for groundwater recharge. Empirical and theory-derived functional relationships show varying agreements with models, indicating that our process understanding is particularly uncertain for energy balance processes, groundwater recharge processes and in dry and/or cold regions. Functional relationships offer great potential for model evaluation and an opportunity for fundamental advances in global hydrology and Earth system research in general.

 

Abstract Droughts that exceed the magnitudes of historical variation ranges could occur increasingly frequently under future climate conditions. However, the time of the emergence of unprecedented drought conditions under climate change has rarely been examined. Here, using multimodel hydrological simulations, we investigate the changes in the frequency of hydrological drought (defined as abnormally low river discharge) under high and low greenhouse gas concentration scenarios and existing water resource management measures and estimate the time of the first emergence of unprecedented regional drought conditions centered on the low-flow season. The times are detected for several subcontinental-scale regions, and three regions, namely, Southwestern South America, Mediterranean Europe, and Northern Africa, exhibit particularly robust results under the high-emission scenario. These three regions are expected to confront unprecedented conditions within the next 30 years with a high likelihood regardless of the emission scenarios. In addition, the results obtained herein demonstrate the benefits of the lower-emission pathway in reducing the likelihood of emergence. The Paris Agreement goals are shown to be effective in reducing the likelihood to the unlikely level in most regions. However, appropriate and prior adaptation measures are considered indispensable when facing unprecedented drought conditions. The results of this study underscore the importance of improving drought preparedness within the considered time horizons. 

Abstract. In the context of changing climate and increasing waterdemand, large-scale hydrological models are helpful for understanding andprojecting future water resources across scales. Groundwater is a criticalfreshwater resource and strongly controls river flow throughout the year. Itis also essential for ecosystems and contributes to evapotranspiration,resulting in climate feedback. However, groundwater systems worldwide arequite diverse, including thick multilayer aquifers and thin heterogeneousaquifers. Recently, efforts have been made to improve the representation ofgroundwater systems in large-scale hydrological models. The evaluation ofthe accuracy of these model outputs is challenging because (1) they areapplied at much coarser resolutions than hillslope scale, (2) they simplifygeological structures generally known at local scale, and (3) they do notadequately include local water management practices (mainly groundwaterpumping). Here, we apply a large-scale hydrological model (CWatM), coupledwith the groundwater flow model MODFLOW, in two different climatic,geological, and socioeconomic regions: the Seewinkel area (Austria) and theBhima basin (India). The coupled model enables simulation of the impact ofthe water table on groundwater–soil and groundwater–river exchanges,groundwater recharge through leaking canals, and groundwater pumping. Thisregional-scale analysis enables assessment of the model's ability tosimulate water tables at fine spatial resolutions (1 km for CWatM, 100–250 m for MODFLOW) and when groundwater pumping is well estimated. Evaluatinglarge-scale models remains challenging, but the results show that thereproduction of (1) average water table fluctuations and (2) water tabledepths without bias can be a benchmark objective of such models. We foundthat grid resolution is the main factor that affects water table depth biasbecause it smooths river incision, while pumping affects time fluctuations.Finally, we use the model to assess the impact of groundwater-basedirrigation pumping on evapotranspiration, groundwater recharge, and watertable observations from boreholes. 

Detection and attribution studies generally examine individual climate variables such as temperature and precipitation. Thus, we lack a strong understanding of climate change impacts on correlated climate extremes and compound events, which have become more common in recent years. Here we present a monthly‐scale compound warm and dry attribution study, examining CMIP6 climate models with and without the influence of anthropogenic forcing. We show that most regions have experienced large increases in concurrent warm and dry months in historical simulations with human emissions, while no coherent change has occurred in historical natural‐only simulations without human emissions. At the global scale, the likelihood of compound warm‐dry months has increased 2.7 times due to anthropogenic emissions. With this multivariate perspective, we highlight that anthropogenic emissions have not only impacted individual extremes but also compound extremes. Due to amplified risks from multivariate extremes, our results can provide important insights on the risks of associated climate impacts.

 

Abstract. Billions of people rely on groundwater as being an accessible source of drinking water and for irrigation, especially in times of drought. Its importance will likely increase with a changing climate. It is still unclear, however, how climate change will impact groundwater systems globally and, thus, the availability of this vital resource. Groundwater recharge is an important indicator for groundwater availability, but it is a water flux that is difficult to estimate as uncertainties in the water balance accumulate, leading to possibly large errors in particular in dry regions. This study investigates uncertainties in groundwater recharge projections using a multi-model ensemble of eight global hydrological models (GHMs) that are driven by the bias-adjusted output of four global circulation models (GCMs). Pre-industrial and current groundwater recharge values are compared with recharge for different global warming (GW) levels as a result of three representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Results suggest that projected changes strongly vary among the different GHM–GCM combinations, and statistically significant changes are only computed for a few regions of the world. Statistically significant GWR increases are projected for northern Europe and some parts of the Arctic, East Africa, and India. Statistically significant decreases are simulated in southern Chile, parts of Brazil, central USA, the Mediterranean, and southeastern China. In some regions, reversals of groundwater recharge trends can be observed with global warming. Because most GHMs do not simulate the impact of changing atmospheric CO2 and climate on vegetation and, thus, evapotranspiration, we investigate how estimated changes in GWR are affected by the inclusion of these processes. In some regions, inclusion leads to differences in groundwater recharge changes of up to 100 mm per year. Most GHMs with active vegetation simulate less severe decreases in groundwater recharge than GHMs without active vegetation and, in some regions, even increases instead of decreases are simulated. However, in regions where GCMs predict decreases in precipitation and where groundwater availability is the most important, model agreement among GHMs with active vegetation is the lowest. Overall, large uncertainties in the model outcomes suggest that additional research on simulating groundwater processes in GHMs is necessary. 

Abstract. We develop a new large-scale hydrological and water resources model, theCommunity Water Model (CWatM), which can simulate hydrology both globallyand regionally at different resolutions from 30 arcmin to 30 arcsec atdaily time steps. CWatM is open source in the Python programming environmentand has a modular structure. It uses global, freely available data in thenetCDF4 file format for reading, storage, and production of data in acompact way. CWatM includes general surface and groundwater hydrologicalprocesses but also takes into account human activities, such as water useand reservoir regulation, by calculating water demands, water use, andreturn flows. Reservoirs and lakes are included in the model scheme. CWatMis used in the framework of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model IntercomparisonProject (ISIMIP), which compares global model outputs. The flexible modelstructure allows for dynamic interaction with hydro-economic and water qualitymodels for the assessment and evaluation of water management options.Furthermore, the novelty of CWatM is its combination of state-of-the-arthydrological modeling, modular programming, an online user manual andautomatic source code documentation, global and regional assessments atdifferent spatial resolutions, and a potential community to add to, change,and expand the open-source project. CWatM also strives to build a communitylearning environment which is able to freely use an open-source hydrologicalmodel and flexible coupling possibilities to other sectoral models, such asenergy and agriculture.